Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, forecasts $46 billion in crypto exchange trading volume during the first year of new regulations set to take effect September 1, 2026, according to research from its investment arm SberCIB.
Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov cited the forecast in a TASS interview, projecting the scale of legal crypto trading once new rules permitting domestic exchanges come into force. The figure is based on the bank's expectation of institutional and retail participation moving to regulated platforms after Russia's regulatory framework took shape through a series of Central Bank and government policy adjustments over the past two years.
Sberbank's forecast assumes migration of existing over-the-counter activity and new entrants to compliant venues. Russia has pursued crypto regulation through pilot programs and legislative moves aimed at channeling trading into supervised exchanges rather than unregistered brokers. The Central Bank has been designing custody and settlement infrastructure to support licensed platforms. No official government estimate of first-year volume has been published.
The $46 billion projection is material relative to Russia's current financial market scale. For comparison, the Moscow Exchange handled approximately $600 billion in equity trading volume in 2025. Crypto trading, if realized at Sberbank's forecast level, would represent a significant new asset class within Russia's regulated financial system despite years of official skepticism toward digital assets.
Legal uncertainty in Russia around crypto persisted until recently. The Central Bank held a restrictive stance on crypto trading for retail and institutional clients through 2024, citing money-laundering and sanctions-evasion risks. A shift began in 2025 when draft legislation on regulated crypto exchanges circulated among policymakers. The September 1 effective date indicates the regulatory framework has now cleared legislative hurdles.
Sberbank is Russia's largest financial institution by assets and state-controlled, making it a major player in the new market structure. Other major Russian financial institutions have not yet released comparable volume estimates.
If Sberbank's forecast proves accurate, Russia would rank among the world's top 15 crypto markets by annual trading volume within months of launching regulated trading. The figure amounts to roughly $127 million per trading day assuming 360 trading days per year, or $177 million daily on a 260-day calendar. Whether actual volumes match the forecast will depend on the regulatory framework's design, available custody solutions, and consumer adoption rates among participants historically trading crypto in unregistered venues or offshore exchanges.
