Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating on SpaceX and set a $300 price target, with a $600 bull case, according to a note the firm published within 48 hours of the first major lock-up expiration on August 6. The bank characterized the lock-up release as a buying opportunity despite 911.5 million shares becoming tradable.
SpaceX's equity structure has been shaped by its private status and recent disclosure of valuation through secondary markets. The $300 base case implies roughly 2x the most recent private-market valuation that emerged from the company's Cursor artificial intelligence platform investment round, which valued the space and rocket company at roughly $210 billion. The bull case at $600 reflects Morgan Stanley's confidence in the company's long-term cash generation, though the bank's formal analysis tied to the Cursor deal has not been publicly detailed.
Lock-up expirations typically create near-term uncertainty for shareholders. The August 6 expiration released 911.5 million shares held by early investors and employees. SpaceX's first tranche saw no material liquidation, while Morgan Stanley issued its reiteration within two days.
Morgan Stanley's reiteration places the bank among institutional voices maintaining conviction in SpaceX equity at a moment when private-market trading has accelerated. The firm's dual-case framework, base case of $300 and bull case of $600, reflects a 2x range between base and upside scenarios, wider than typical public-company analyst spreads for mature businesses. SpaceX trades on secondary markets through platforms that serve accredited investors; no public listing has been announced.
The August 11-12 timing of Morgan Stanley's reiteration followed weeks in which SpaceX's board and founders have faced questions about liquidity events and capital allocation. The note framed lock-up expiration as a buying point, rather than a risk to manage, a stance that diverges from the cautious tone some analysts adopt around secondary-market selling pressure.
Whether Morgan Stanley's base case gains traction with other institutions over the next 90 days will depend on SpaceX's operational milestones and any updates to the Cursor investment thesis. The $300 target represents the consensus conviction level among the analysts tracking the company through secondary-market channels.
