Crypto.com and Prospect Markets have executed a definitive agreement to launch prediction market services in the United States, according to an announcement on September 1. The binding deal advances from a non-binding letter of intent signed on July 7 and targets a market the parties estimate at exceeding $1 trillion in annual trading volume.
The agreement marks the first time Crypto.com, a regulated digital asset platform with U.S. Money Transmitter licensing across multiple states, has committed to hosting prediction market contracts. Prospect Markets, an established prediction market protocol, has operated primarily outside the United States due to regulatory barriers. The partnership pairs Crypto.com's U.S. regulatory infrastructure and retail distribution with Prospect's market-making and contract design technology.
Prediction markets allow users to bet on the outcomes of future events, from elections to economic data releases to corporate earnings. Unlike options or futures, prediction contracts settle on binary or multi-outcome occurrences and require no underlying asset custody. The U.S. market for such instruments has remained nascent compared to traditional derivatives exchanges, partly because the regulatory status of prediction market operators remained ambiguous until recent years.
Crypto.com holds Money Transmitter licenses in 34 U.S. states and has registered with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. The company has also sought compliance pathways with the Securities and Exchange Commission, though prediction markets themselves have not been formally blessed by regulators as exempt or approved products. Prospect Markets says its model operates under existing commodity futures and gaming law frameworks, but enforcement action against prediction market platforms has remained a risk since the 2023 closure of Kalshi's political contracts following CFTC pressure.
The $1 trillion addressable market figure cited by both parties encompasses retail and institutional interest in event-contingent wagering globally. No timeline for live trading has been announced. The agreement requires regulatory approval and compliance review, which Crypto.com said is underway.
Neither party has disclosed financial terms or equity stakes involved in the arrangement. Crypto.com did not respond to requests for comment on whether it expects to operate prediction markets as a principal dealer, market maker, or exchange-only venue.
