Senate Republicans released a final version of the Clarity Act on Sunday with 126 changes requested by Democrats, lifting prediction market odds for the bill's passage to 30 percent on Polymarket before settling back to 25 percent.
The final bill text retained its ethics section unchanged from a July draft, according to the release from Senators Cynthia Lummis, John Boozman and Tim Scott. The revision cycle included 126 edits, though the parties have not detailed which Democratic priorities shaped them.
The Clarity Act, which would establish regulatory jurisdiction over digital assets by creating a new commodity token category and clarifying Securities and Exchange Commission authority, has stalled since March when disagreements over two issues froze negotiations. Democrats secured input on the bill's scope in this round. The prediction market response moved 30 percent in a single day, the largest swing since the bill re-entered serious discussion in late August.
Polymarket betting on bills approaching floor votes has historically shown limited predictive power in the current Congress. Odds on this bill have moved between 15 and 30 percent over the past six weeks. The current 25 percent price implies markets assign a three-to-one probability against passage in 2026.
Lummis and Scott have framed the bill as essential infrastructure that would attract digital asset firms to the United States and clarify compliance for existing platforms. The bill has no floor scheduling as of Monday morning, and Senate leadership has not committed to a vote date. If the ethics section remained intact despite 126 other changes, Democrats likely focused revisions on definitional language, custody rules, or the bill's treatment of existing tokens already trading in secondary markets.
