Bitwise analyst Matt Rasmussen said Circle is mispriced relative to the stablecoin sector's growth trajectory, as transaction volumes in the category approach trillion-dollar scale.
Stablecoin transaction volume reached $1.8 trillion in June 2026, according to sector data cited in Rasmussen's analysis. Projections place total stablecoin supply between $1 trillion and $3 trillion by 2028-2030, compared with the current sector supply of roughly $310 billion. Circle's USDC stablecoin holds $73 billion in supply, the second-largest by circulation behind Tether's USDT.
Rasmussen's argument rests on a comparison between Circle's current equity valuation and the runway ahead. Circle trades at a $25.7 billion market capitalization, a figure that reflects investor pricing of the company's core stablecoin business alongside its infrastructure and payment products. The disparity between that valuation and the projected scale of stablecoin adoption, where the sector could grow 3 to 10 times larger in the next three to four years, forms the basis of Rasmussen's thesis.
Circle has spent two years expanding USDC supply across new blockchains and emerging markets. The company launched Arc, a crypto-native payments platform for institutions, in 2025 and has been broadening USDC's presence on chains outside Ethereum and Solana. USDC supply grew $8 billion year-over-year through mid-2026, extending the token's runway as a competitive alternative to Tether.
Transaction volume has grown as corporate treasury management, cross-border payment, and programmatic settlement use cases expand beyond speculation-driven demand. Rasmussen did not specify a price target or a timeline for Circle's equity to adjust to the sector's projected growth.
Circle's equity trades at a discount to peers that command higher multiples on smaller revenue bases, though the company operates at higher margins than many fintech counterparts. If stablecoin volume reaches $3 trillion by 2030 and Circle's USDC commands a 25 percent market share, the token alone would process $750 billion in annual transactions, a scale that would make the equity valuation material to investors pricing long-term revenue growth.
The thesis depends on Circle retaining its second-place position while the stablecoin market expands. Tether controls 68 percent of total stablecoin supply as of August 2026; any shift in regulatory treatment of the two issuers or emergence of central-bank-backed stablecoins could reshape that split.