Bank of America raised its semiconductor industry growth forecast to 18% compound annual growth rate through 2030, up from a prior 14% estimate, citing stronger memory and data center demand driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout.
The bank now projects the semiconductor market will reach $3.2 trillion by 2030, up from a previous $2.7 trillion estimate. The industry currently stands at $1.7 trillion, meaning BofA expects it to nearly double within four years. Wafer fabrication equipment spending is expected to grow substantially, with memory chip production and data center expansion advancing globally.
Wafer fabrication equipment spending drew the sharpest upward revisions. BofA expects $156 billion in fab equipment spending in 2026, up 33 percent year-over-year from 2025, followed by $210 billion in 2027, up 34 percent. By 2030, fab equipment spending is forecast to reach $360 billion. Within that category, DRAM equipment investment alone is projected at $61 billion in 2026 and $85 billion in 2027.
The bank attributed the stronger outlook to three factors: continued high-volume orders for AI and data center processors, long-term capacity commitments from major cloud providers, and capital allocation toward memory production. Memory chips, which power both data centers and consumer devices, represent the largest share of semiconductor demand by revenue.
Nvidia's B200 GPU rental pricing remained firm at approximately $5.72 per hour as of the forecast date, less than 10 percent below its March 2026 peak. Used GPU rental market pricing has historically moved in line with downstream demand for training and inference services among enterprise customers.
BofA's 18 percent growth rate would exceed the semiconductor industry's 10-year historical average of roughly 8 percent. The 2026-2030 period captures the build-out phase of large language model serving capacity and enterprise adoption of generative AI tools.
The forecast assumes no major geopolitical disruption to supply chains or significant slowdown in cloud provider capital expenditure. If either condition changes, the bank has not disclosed how far downward the growth estimate could adjust. BofA will refine its outlook when it releases updated semiconductor sector research in Q1 2027.
